Climate Change Redraws Global Tea Map

Climate change will significantly redraw the contours of the global tea industry by mid-century. By 2050, more than half of the world’s top 20 tea-producing countries are projected to see notable declines in the availability of land highly suitable for tea cultivation.

Kenya, one of the leading exporters of black tea, could lose up to 26.2% of its optimal tea-growing zones, with average suitability dropping by as much as 39%.

India forecasts a slight decline of just over 2% in highly suitable areas, while others point to gains, particularly in higher altitudes, suggesting potential upslope shifts.

Sri Lanka, another major player, may see a 14% drop in optimal areas by 2050, worsening to nearly 30% by 2070.

Even China is not immune, with projections showing a 4.7% reduction in its top-tier tea-growing zones, which could intensify under more severe climate scenarios.

The potential loss ofprime land could directly affect farmer incomes, cropquality, and global tea availability — challenges thatdemand proactiveadaptation strategies.However, the shifting climate also presents newopportunities. Some countries are expected to benefitfrom altered growing conditions. Turkey, for instance, could see a dramatic 127-130% increase in

moderately suitable tea-growing land by 2050, particularly in elevated, cooler regions.

Other countriessuch as Iran, Rwanda, and Thailand are projected to gain between 11% and 27% in highly suitable teacultivation zones, potentially emerging as new tea-producing hubs. These areas offer investment possibilities, though they will require significant infrastructure development, policy support, and technicalcapacity building to fully realize their potential.

As the climate crisis accelerates, the future of tea will depend on how quickly and effectively the industry,across continents and supply chains, can respond. Without immediate, coordinated efforts, some of theworld’s most iconic tea landscapes may become unsuitable for cultivation within a generation.

Source: STiR Coffee & Tea (Extracts), Courtesy: Tea Exporters’ Association Sri Lanka